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"Tight races for governor and senator, not to mention several close congressional contests." No, it's not Pennsylvania, it's next door in Ohio, but this essay from Quinnipiac's Peter Brown has lessons for politics-watchers over here too.

From the WSJ:

If the GOP can win these toss-up Ohio races, then a repeat of the 1994 Republican landslide might be possible nationally. Wins by the Democrats, however, would likely indicate that their losses might be smaller elsewhere, more in line with those typically suffered by a president’s party at this point in the calendar.

One of the truisms of American politics is that in years of large electoral change, the law of averages does not apply. The key to electoral landslides is that all of the close races go the same way. That is what happened in the 2006 and 2008 congressional contests. President Barack Obama won several states – ones that had not gone Democratic in some time – by small margins in 2008, too.

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